Whole genome demographic models indicate divergent effective population size histories shape contemporary genetic diversity gradients in a montane bumble bee

Understanding historical range shifts and population size variation provides an important context for interpreting contemporary genetic diversity. Methods to predict changes in species distributions and model changes in effective population size (N (e)) using whole genomes make it feasible to examine how temporal dynamics influence diversity across populations. We investigate N ( e ) variation and climate‐associated range shifts to examine the origins of a previously observed latitudinal heterozygosity gradient in the bumble bee Bombus vancouverensis Cresson (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Bombus Latreille) in western North America. We analyze whole genomes from a latitude‐elevation cline using sequentially Markovian coalescent models of N (e) through time to test whether relatively low diversity in southern high‐elevation populations is a result of long‐term differences in N (e). We use Maxent models of the species range over the last 130,000 years to evaluate range shifts and stability. N (e) fluctuates with climate across populations, but more genetically diverse northern populations have maintained greater N (e) over the late Pleistocene and experienced larger expansions with climatically favorable time periods. Northern populations also experienced larger bottlenecks during the last glacial period, which matched the loss of range area near these sites; however, bottlenecks were not sufficient to erode diversity maintained during periods of large N (e). A genome sampled from an island population indicated a severe postglacial bottleneck, indicating that large recent postglacial declines are detectable if they have occurred. Genetic diversity was not related to niche stability or glacial‐period bottleneck size. Instead, spatial expansions and increased connectivity during favorable climates likely maintain diversity in the north while restriction to high elevations maintains relatively low diversity despite greater stability in southern regions. Results suggest genetic diversity gradients reflect long‐term differences in N (e) dynamics and also emphasize the unique effects of isolation on insular habitats for bumble bees. Patterns are discussed in the context of conservation under climate change.