Growth Prediction of Under-5 Children Using Statistical Models for Eastern Region of India

BACKGROUND: Percentile curves are often used to assess variances in children’s growth pattern. This study is aimed at explaining effect of the respondents’ sociodemographic characteristics on under-5 children’s birth weight and identifying most suitable models, out of 11 statistical models reviewed, for estimating children’s growth in terms of height and weight of a given birth-weight category and obtain estimated growth curves. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study used National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-4 data from four Eastern States of India, consisting of 54,075 under-5 children. Estimated growth curves were obtained, using best-fit models. RESULTS: Birth weight was found to be associated with children’s age, gender, birth order, body mass index, mother’s education, living place and wealth index. Two models – Cubic Model and Power Model – showed best fit to the height and weight measurements. We obtained estimated growth curves of boys and girls for a given birth-weight category. CONCLUSIONS: All socio-demographic factors studied, except respondent’s occupation, were associated with children’s birth weight. Cubic and Power Models were most suitable for assessing growth in terms of height and weight of boys and girls, belonging to a given birth-weight category.