Development of a Model to Predict Liver Decompensation prior to Transarterial Chemoembolization Refractoriness in Patients with Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). For patients without an adequate response, current finding suggests that treatment with molecular target agents, approved for advanced stage, might present benefits. However, this requires a preserved liver function. This study aims to evaluate possible predictors of early deterioration of hepatic reserve, prior to TACE refractoriness, in a cohort of patients treated with TACE. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 99 patients with Child-Pugh class A and intermediate-stage HCC who underwent TACE as the first-line treatment. All patients were submitted to a biochemical and medical evaluation prior to initial TACE and every month afterward. Response to initial TACE was evaluated at 1 month. The time to Child-Pugh class deterioration before TACE refractoriness was assessed. RESULTS: Ninety-nine patients were included. Objective response rate (ORR) to initial TACE was assessed as present in 59 (63.4%) and as absent in 34 (36.6%) patients. Liver decompensated before TACE refractoriness in 51 (51.5%) patients, and the median time to liver decompensation was 14 (IQR 8–20) months after first TACE. In multivariate analysis, beyond up-to-7 criteria (HR 2.4, p = 0.031), albumin <35 mg/dL (HR 3.5, p < 0.001) and absence of ORR (HR 2.4, p = 0.020) were associated with decreased overall survival free of liver decompensation. Moreover, beyond up-to-7 criteria, albumin <35 mg/dL and absence of ORR associated negatively with 6-month survival free of liver decompensation. Our model created using those variables was able to predict liver decompensation at 6 months with an AUROC of 0.701 (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The absence of ORR after initial TACE, beyond up-to-7 criteria and albumin <35 mg/dL, was a predictive factor for early liver decompensation before TACE refractoriness in our population. Such patients might benefit from treatment escalation to systemic therapy, in monotherapy or in combination with TACE.