Development and external validation of a prognostic model for occult atrial fibrillation in patients with ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE: Currently, the risk of occult atrial fibrillation (AF) could not be predicted in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using a simple scoring system. Therefore, in this study, we developed and externally validated a nomogram to predict occult AF in patients with AIS. METHODS: In this study, we prospectively conducted a development cohort study with data collected at our stroke center from July 2017 to February 2018, and an external validation cohort from March 2019 to December 2019. RESULTS: Follow-up data were collected from 177 participants (56.5% older than 65 years, 29.4% female) for generating the nomogram model. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with AF as the dependent variable indicated that age >65 years, heart rate >100, C-reactive protein (CRP), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) >270, hemorrhagic transformation (HT) as independent variables for predicting the development of AF, and a nomogram was generated based on these factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for the model was 0.937, the C-index was 0.926, and the AUC-ROC for the validation cohort was 0.913. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first nomogram developed and externally validated in a stroke center cohort for individualized prediction of risk of developing AIS in patients with occult AF. This nomogram could provide valuable information for the screening of occult AF after a stroke.