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Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on the time-scale of several centuries by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. The statistical models we propose are applied to annual max...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Contzen, Justus, Dickhaus, Thorsten, Lohmann, Gerrit
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9891510/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36724145
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280503
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author Contzen, Justus
Dickhaus, Thorsten
Lohmann, Gerrit
author_facet Contzen, Justus
Dickhaus, Thorsten
Lohmann, Gerrit
author_sort Contzen, Justus
collection PubMed
description We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on the time-scale of several centuries by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. The statistical models we propose are applied to annual maxima of daily temperature data from fully coupled climate models spanning the years 1850 through 2300. They enable us to investigate how extremes will change depending on the geographic location not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in terms of the timing of the changes. We find that in general, changes in extremes are stronger and more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In addition, our statistical models allow for changes in the different parameters of the fitted generalized extreme value distributions (a location, a scale and a shape parameter) to take place independently and at varying time periods. Different statistical models are presented and the Bayesian Information Criterion is used for model selection. It turns out that in most regions, changes in mean and variance take place simultaneously while the shape parameter of the distribution is predicted to stay constant. In the Arctic region, however, a different picture emerges: There, climate variability is predicted to increase rather quickly in the second half of the twenty-first century, probably due to the melting of ice, whereas changes in the mean values take longer and come into effect later.
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spelling pubmed-98915102023-02-02 Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth Contzen, Justus Dickhaus, Thorsten Lohmann, Gerrit PLoS One Research Article We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on the time-scale of several centuries by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. The statistical models we propose are applied to annual maxima of daily temperature data from fully coupled climate models spanning the years 1850 through 2300. They enable us to investigate how extremes will change depending on the geographic location not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in terms of the timing of the changes. We find that in general, changes in extremes are stronger and more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In addition, our statistical models allow for changes in the different parameters of the fitted generalized extreme value distributions (a location, a scale and a shape parameter) to take place independently and at varying time periods. Different statistical models are presented and the Bayesian Information Criterion is used for model selection. It turns out that in most regions, changes in mean and variance take place simultaneously while the shape parameter of the distribution is predicted to stay constant. In the Arctic region, however, a different picture emerges: There, climate variability is predicted to increase rather quickly in the second half of the twenty-first century, probably due to the melting of ice, whereas changes in the mean values take longer and come into effect later. Public Library of Science 2023-02-01 /pmc/articles/PMC9891510/ /pubmed/36724145 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280503 Text en © 2023 Contzen et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Contzen, Justus
Dickhaus, Thorsten
Lohmann, Gerrit
Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth
title Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth
title_full Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth
title_fullStr Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth
title_full_unstemmed Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth
title_short Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth
title_sort long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming earth
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9891510/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36724145
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280503
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