Implementation of five machine learning methods to predict the 52-week blood glucose level in patients with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: For the patients who are suffering from type 2 diabetes, blood glucose level could be affected by multiple factors. An accurate estimation of the trajectory of blood glucose is crucial in clinical decision making. Frequent glucose measurement serves as a good source of data to train machine learning models for prediction purposes. This study aimed at using machine learning methods to predict blood glucose for type 2 diabetic patients. We investigated various parameters influencing blood glucose, as well as determined the most effective machine learning algorithm in predicting blood glucose. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 273 patients were recruited in this research. Several parameters such as age, diet, family history, BMI, alcohol intake, smoking status et al were analyzed. Patients who had glycosylated hemoglobin less than 6.5% after 52 weeks were considered as having achieved glycemic control and the rest as not achieving it. Five machine learning methods (KNN algorithm, logistic regression algorithm, random forest algorithm, support vector machine, and XGBoost algorithm) were compared to evaluate their performances in prediction accuracy. R 3.6.3 and Python 3.12 were used in data analysis. RESULTS: The statistical variables for which p< 0.05 was obtained were BMI, pulse, Na, Cl, AKP. Compared with the other four algorithms, XGBoost algorithm has the highest accuracy (Accuracy=99.54% in training set and 78.18% in testing set) and AUC values (1.0 in training set and 0.68 in testing set), thus it is recommended to be used for prediction in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: When it comes to future blood glucose level prediction using machine learning methods, XGBoost algorithm scores the highest in effectiveness. This algorithm could be applied to assist clinical decision making, as well as guide the lifestyle of diabetic patients, in pursuit of minimizing risks of hyperglycemic or hypoglycemic events.