Significance of logistic regression scoring model based on natural killer cell-mediated cytotoxic pathway in the diagnosis of colon cancer

BACKGROUND: The poor clinical accuracy to predict the survival of colon cancer patients is associated with a high incidence rate and a poor 3-year survival rate. This study aimed to identify the poor prognostic biomarkers of colon cancer from natural killer cell-mediated cytotoxic pathway (NKCP), and establish a logistical regression scoring model to predict its prognosis. METHODS: Based on the expressions and methylations of NKCP-related genes (NRGs) and the clinical information, dimensionality reduction screening was performed to establish a logistic regression scoring model to predict survival and prognosis. Risk score, clinical stage, and ULBP2 were used to establish a logistic regression scoring model to classify the 3-year survival period and compare with each other. Comparison of survival, tumor mutation burden (TMB), estimation of immune invasion, and prediction of chemotherapeutic drug IC50 were performed between low- and high-risk score groups. RESULTS: This study found that ULBP2 was significantly overexpressed in colon cancer tissues and colon cancer cell lines. The logistic regression scoring model was established to include six statistically significant features: S = 1.70 × stage – 9.32 × cg06543087 + 6.19 × cg25848557 + 1.29 × IFNA1 + 0.048 × age + 4.37 × cg21370856 − 8.93, which was used to calculate risk score of each sample. The risk scores, clinical stage, and ULBP2 were classified into three-year survival, the 3-year prediction accuracy based on 10-fold cross-validation was 80.17%, 67.24, and 59.48%, respectively. The survival time of low-risk score group was better than that of the high-risk score group. Moreover, compared to high-risk score group, low-risk score group had lower TMB [2.20/MB (log10) vs. 2.34/MB (log10)], higher infiltration score of M0 macrophages (0.17 vs. 0.14), and lower mean IC50 value of oxaliplatin (3.65 vs 3.78) (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The significantly upregulated ULBP2 was a poor prognostic biomarker of colon cancer. The risk score based on the six-feature logistic regression model can effectively predict the 3-year survival time. High-risk score group demonstrated a poorer prognosis, higher TMB, lower M0 macrophage infiltration score, and higher IC50 value of oxaliplatin. The six-feature logistic scoring model has certain clinical significance in colon cancer.