Establishment and verification of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of post-stroke depression

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to establish a nomogram predictive model of clinical risk factors for post-stroke depression (PSD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used the data of 202 stroke patients collected from Xuanwu Hospital from October 2018 to September 2020 as training data to develop a predictive model. Nineteen clinical factors were selected to evaluate their risk. Minimum absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression were used to select the best patient attributes, and seven predictive factors with predictive ability were selected, and then multi-factor logistic regression analysis was carried out to determine six predictive factors and establish a nomogram prediction model. The C-index, calibration chart, and decision curve analyses were used to evaluate the predictive ability, accuracy, and clinical practicability of the prediction model. We then used the data of 156 stroke patients collected by Xiangya Hospital from June 2019 to September 2020 for external verification. RESULTS: The selected predictors including work style, number of children, time from onset to hospitalization, history of hyperlipidemia, stroke area, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score. The model showed good prediction ability and a C index of 0.773 (95% confidence interval: [0.696–0.850]). It reached a high C-index value of 0.71 in bootstrap verification, and its C index was observed to be as high as 0.702 (95% confidence interval: [0.616–0.788]) in external verification. Decision curve analyses further showed that the nomogram of post-stroke depression has high clinical usefulness when the threshold probability was 6%. CONCLUSION: This novel nomogram, which combines patients’ work style, number of children, time from onset to hospitalization, history of hyperlipidemia, stroke area, and NIHSS score, can help clinicians to assess the risk of depression in patients with acute stroke much earlier in the timeline of the disease, and to implement early intervention treatment so as to reduce the incidence of PSD.