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A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-ter...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Titus, Timothy, Robertson, D., Sankey, J. B., Mastin, L., Rengers, F.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9900588/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36776703
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05722-z
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author Titus, Timothy
Robertson, D.
Sankey, J. B.
Mastin, L.
Rengers, F.
author_facet Titus, Timothy
Robertson, D.
Sankey, J. B.
Mastin, L.
Rengers, F.
author_sort Titus, Timothy
collection PubMed
description Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.
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spelling pubmed-99005882023-02-06 A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards Titus, Timothy Robertson, D. Sankey, J. B. Mastin, L. Rengers, F. Nat Hazards (Dordr) Review Article Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts. Springer Netherlands 2023-02-06 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9900588/ /pubmed/36776703 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05722-z Text en © Springer Nature B.V. 2023, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Review Article
Titus, Timothy
Robertson, D.
Sankey, J. B.
Mastin, L.
Rengers, F.
A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
title A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
title_full A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
title_fullStr A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
title_full_unstemmed A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
title_short A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
title_sort review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards
topic Review Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9900588/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36776703
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05722-z
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