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Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index

While every disease could affect a patient’s prognosis, published studies continue to use indices that include a selective list of diseases to predict prognosis, which may limit its accuracy. This paper compares 6-month mortality predicted by a multimorbidity index (MMI) that relies on all diagnoses...

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Autores principales: Alemi, Farrokh, Avramovic, Sanja, Schwartz, Mark
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9901984/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36749236
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000032687
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author Alemi, Farrokh
Avramovic, Sanja
Schwartz, Mark
author_facet Alemi, Farrokh
Avramovic, Sanja
Schwartz, Mark
author_sort Alemi, Farrokh
collection PubMed
description While every disease could affect a patient’s prognosis, published studies continue to use indices that include a selective list of diseases to predict prognosis, which may limit its accuracy. This paper compares 6-month mortality predicted by a multimorbidity index (MMI) that relies on all diagnoses to the Deyo version of the Charlson index (DCI), a popular index that utilizes a selective set of diagnoses. In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk national cohort that included 6,082,018 diabetes-free veterans receiving primary care from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016. For the MMI, 7805 diagnoses were assigned into 19 body systems, using the likelihood that the disease will increase risk of mortality. The DCI used 17 categories of diseases, classified by clinicians as severe diseases. In predicting 6-month mortality, the cross-validated area under the receiver operating curve for the MMI was 0.828 (95% confidence interval of 0.826–0.829) and for the DCI was 0.749 (95% confidence interval of 0.748–0.750). Using all available diagnoses (MMI) led to a large improvement in accuracy of predicting prognosis of patients than using a selected list of diagnosis (DCI).
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spelling pubmed-99019842023-02-08 Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index Alemi, Farrokh Avramovic, Sanja Schwartz, Mark Medicine (Baltimore) 4300 While every disease could affect a patient’s prognosis, published studies continue to use indices that include a selective list of diseases to predict prognosis, which may limit its accuracy. This paper compares 6-month mortality predicted by a multimorbidity index (MMI) that relies on all diagnoses to the Deyo version of the Charlson index (DCI), a popular index that utilizes a selective set of diagnoses. In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk national cohort that included 6,082,018 diabetes-free veterans receiving primary care from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016. For the MMI, 7805 diagnoses were assigned into 19 body systems, using the likelihood that the disease will increase risk of mortality. The DCI used 17 categories of diseases, classified by clinicians as severe diseases. In predicting 6-month mortality, the cross-validated area under the receiver operating curve for the MMI was 0.828 (95% confidence interval of 0.826–0.829) and for the DCI was 0.749 (95% confidence interval of 0.748–0.750). Using all available diagnoses (MMI) led to a large improvement in accuracy of predicting prognosis of patients than using a selected list of diagnosis (DCI). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2023-02-03 /pmc/articles/PMC9901984/ /pubmed/36749236 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000032687 Text en Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle 4300
Alemi, Farrokh
Avramovic, Sanja
Schwartz, Mark
Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index
title Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index
title_full Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index
title_fullStr Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index
title_full_unstemmed Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index
title_short Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo–Charlson index
title_sort predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: comparison of multimorbidity index to deyo–charlson index
topic 4300
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9901984/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36749236
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000032687
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