Nomogram based on MRI for preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression in patients with intrahepatic mass cholangiocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES: To validate a new nomogram based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for pre-operative prediction of Ki-67 expression in patients with intrahepatic mass cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC). METHODS: A total of 78 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed IMCC who underwent pre-operative gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid enhanced MRI between 2016 and 2022 were enrolled in the training and validation group (53 patients and 25 patients, respectively). Images including qualitative, quantitative MRI features and clinical data were evaluated. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to select the independent predictors and establish different predictive models. The predictive performance was validated by operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The validation cohort was used to test the predictive performance of the optimal model. The nomogram was constructed with the optimal model. RESULTS: In the training cohort, independent predictors obtained from the combined model were DWI (OR 1822.741; 95% CI 6.189, 536,781.805; P = 0.01) and HBP enhancement pattern (OR 14.270; 95% CI 1.044, 195.039; P = 0.046). The combined model showed the good performance (AUC 0.981; 95% CI 0.952, 1.000) for predicting Ki-67 expression. In the validation cohort, The combined model (AUC 0.909; 95% CI 0.787, 1.000)showed the best performance compared to the clinical model (AUC 0.448; 95% CI 0.196, 0.700) and MRI model (AUC 0.770; 95% CI 0.570, 0.970). CONCLUSION: This new nomogram has a good performance in predicting Ki-67 expression in patients with IMCC, which could help the decision-making of the patients’ therapy strategies. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00261-022-03719-7.