A novel model for predicting prolonged stay of patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus: a 13-year (2010–2022) multicenter retrospective case–control study

BACKGROUND: Length of stay (LOS) is an important metric for evaluating the management of inpatients. This study aimed to explore the factors impacting the LOS of inpatients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a predictive model for the early identification of inpatients with prolonged LOS. METHODS: A 13-year multicenter retrospective study was conducted on 83,776 patients with T2DM to develop and validate a clinical predictive tool for prolonged LOS. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis were adopted to build the risk model for prolonged LOS, and a nomogram was taken to visualize the model. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves were used to respectively validate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability of the model. RESULTS: The result showed that age, cerebral infarction, antihypertensive drug use, antiplatelet and anticoagulant use, past surgical history, past medical history, smoking, drinking, and neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio were closely related to the prolonged LOS. Area under the curve values of the nomogram in the training, internal validation, external validation set 1, and external validation set 2 were 0.803 (95% CI [confidence interval] 0.799–0.808), 0.794 (95% CI 0.788–0.800), 0.754 (95% CI 0.739–0.770), and 0.743 (95% CI 0.722–0.763), respectively. The calibration curves indicated that the nomogram had a strong calibration. Besides, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves exhibited that the nomogram had favorable clinical practical value. Besides, an online interface (https://cytjt007.shinyapps.io/prolonged_los/) was developed to provide convenient access for users. CONCLUSION: In sum, the proposed model could predict the possible prolonged LOS of inpatients with T2DM and help the clinicians to improve efficiency in bed management. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-03959-1.