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A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries
The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
the authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9906465/ http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092 |
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author | Vasiljeva, Marina Neskorodieva, Inna Ponkratov, Vadim Kuznetsov, Nikolay Ivlev, Vitali Ivleva, Marina Maramygin, Maksim Zekiy, Angelina |
author_facet | Vasiljeva, Marina Neskorodieva, Inna Ponkratov, Vadim Kuznetsov, Nikolay Ivlev, Vitali Ivleva, Marina Maramygin, Maksim Zekiy, Angelina |
author_sort | Vasiljeva, Marina |
collection | PubMed |
description | The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9906465 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | the authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-99064652023-02-08 A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries Vasiljeva, Marina Neskorodieva, Inna Ponkratov, Vadim Kuznetsov, Nikolay Ivlev, Vitali Ivleva, Marina Maramygin, Maksim Zekiy, Angelina Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity Article The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation. the authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd 2020-09 2022-12-31 /pmc/articles/PMC9906465/ http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092 Text en © 2020 the authors. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Vasiljeva, Marina Neskorodieva, Inna Ponkratov, Vadim Kuznetsov, Nikolay Ivlev, Vitali Ivleva, Marina Maramygin, Maksim Zekiy, Angelina A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
title | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
title_full | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
title_fullStr | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
title_full_unstemmed | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
title_short | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
title_sort | predictive model for assessing the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the economies of some eastern european countries |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9906465/ http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092 |
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