Early relapse is an adverse prognostic factor for survival outcomes in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: results from a nationwide registry study

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of the relapse interval in patients with resected oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) is a matter of ongoing debate. In this large-scale, registry-based, nationwide study, we examined whether the time interval between surgery and the first disease relapse may affect survival outcomes in Taiwanese patients with OCSCC. METHODS: Data made available by the Taiwan Health Promotion Administration as of 2004 were obtained. The study cohort consisted of patients who were included in the registry between 2011 and 2017. Disease staging was performed according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Staging Manual, Eight Edition. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 13,789 patients with OCSCC who received surgical treatment. A total of 2327 (16.9%) patients experienced a first disease relapse. The optimal cutoff value for the relapse interval was 330 days when both 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) (≤ 330/>330 days, n = 1630/697) were taken into account. In addition, we undertook a propensity score (PS)-matched analysis of patients (n = 654 each) with early (≤ 330 days) versus late (> 330 days) relapse. RESULTS: The median follow-up time in the entire study cohort was 702 days (433 and 2001 days in the early and late relapse groups, respectively). Compared with patients who experienced late relapse, those with early relapse showed a higher prevalence of the following adverse prognostic factors: pT4, pN3, pStage IV, poor differentiation, depth of invasion ≥ 10 mm, and extra-nodal extension. Multivariable analysis revealed that early relapse was an independent adverse prognostic factor for both 5-year DSS and OS (average hazard ratios [AHRs]: 3.24 and 3.91, respectively). In the PS-matched cohort, patients who experienced early relapse showed less favorable 5-year DSS: 58% versus 30%, p < 0.0001 (AHR: 3.10 [2.69 − 3.57]) and OS: 49% versus 22%, p < 0.0001 (AHR: 3.32 [2.89 − 3.81]). CONCLUSION: After adjustment for potential confounders and PS matching, early relapse was an adverse prognostic factor for survival outcomes in patients with OCSCC. Our findings may have significant implications for risk stratification. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10602-1.