Development of a TGF-β signaling-related genes signature to predict clinical prognosis and immunotherapy responses in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Transforming growth factor (TGF)-β signaling is strongly related to the development and progression of tumor. We aimed to construct a prognostic gene signature based on TGF-β signaling-related genes for predicting clinical prognosis and immunotherapy responses of patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). METHODS: The gene expression profiles and corresponding clinical information of ccRCC were collected from the TCGA and the ArrayExpress (E-MTAB-1980) databases. LASSO, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to construct a prognostic signature in the TCGA cohort. The E-MTAB-1980 cohort were used for validation. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were conducted to assess effectiveness and reliability of the signature. The differences in gene enrichments, immune cell infiltration, and expression of immune checkpoints in ccRCC patients showing different risks were investigated. RESULTS: We constructed a seven gene (PML, CDKN2B, COL1A2, CHRDL1, HPGD, CGN and TGFBR3) signature, which divided the ccRCC patients into high risk group and low risk group. The K-M analysis indicated that patients in the high risk group had a significantly shorter overall survival (OS) time than that in the low risk group in the TCGA (p < 0.001) and E-MTAB-1980 (p = 0.012). The AUC of the signature reached 0.77 at 1 year, 0.7 at 3 years, and 0.71 at 5 years in the TCGA, respectively, and reached 0.69 at 1 year, 0.72 at 3 years, and 0.75 at 5 years in the E-MTAB-1980, respectively. Further analyses confirmed the risk score as an independent prognostic factor for ccRCC (p < 0.001). The results of ssGSEA that immune cell infiltration degree and the scores of immune-related functions were significantly increased in the high risk group. The CIBERSORT analysis indicated that the abundance of immune cell were significantly different between two risk groups. Furthermore, The risk score was positively related to the expression of PD-1, CTLA4 and LAG3.These results indicated that patients in the high risk group benefit more from immunotherapy. CONCLUSION: We constructed a novel TGF-β signaling-related genes signature that could serve as an promising independent factor for predicting clinical prognosis and immunotherapy responses in ccRCC patients.