Fifty years of spring censuses in black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix) in the High Fens (Belgium): did the rabies vaccination has a negative impact on a fox prey population?

Since 2017, a reinforcement programme was developed to save the last, endangered, Belgian population of black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix), in the High Fens Natural Park. To improve the success of this programme, an analysis of past data of this population was undertaken to understand the causes of its past decline. A time series analysis was applied, using annual spring male census data recorded between 1967 and 2016. In the period 1967–1993, there was a fluctuation around an equilibrium of a population of ca. 40–45 males. The peak of 85 males observed in 1971 was probably due to a succession of several favourable years in terms of environmental conditions, albeit without an exceptional annual growth rate. It seems that fox density, by using the occurrence of rabies as a proxy, has an impact on the black grouse population. After 1993, the population dynamic changed drastically, decreasing continuously until finally reaching quasi-extinction. On average, the population lost 15.4% of its size each year. Climate models, applied in previous studies to explain these population trends in the High Fens, failed to describe this major modification in this population’s dynamic and its recent decline. We suggest that this negative effect was mainly induced by a significant increase in predation by red fox (Vulpes vulpes), whose abundance has increased considerably since the 1990s, in particular, as a consequence of the eradication of fox rabies. We also discuss alternative hypotheses, such as the impact of other predator species, modification of the natural environment and climatic modifications. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10344-023-01642-w.