Impact of Environmental Regulation on Carbon Emissions in Countries along the Belt and Road—An Empirical Study Based on PSTR Model

Since China has put forward the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, research on the BRI-related countries along the Belt and Road has sprung up. With the advent of the era of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, environmental regulation, as one of the important methods to control carbon emissions, is becoming increasingly prominent. Research on the impact pathway of environmental regulation of countries along the Belt and Road on carbon emissions has important implications for environmental protection and carbon emission reduction. Based on the panel data of 38 countries along the Belt and Road from 2005 to 2018, this research applied linear Tobit model and nonlinear dynamic panel regression model (PSTR) to evaluate the direct impacts on carbon emissions from environmental regulation of countries along the Belt and Road, and to analyze the different impacts of environmental regulation on carbon emissions in terms of technical innovation, industrial structure, and energy intensity. We found that (1) the direct impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions in the countries along the Belt and Road is positive, with slight differences between the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (2) when technical innovation is at a low level, environmental regulation promotes carbon emissions, while at a high level, environmental regulation significantly inhibits carbon emissions. (3) When industrial structure is at both a low and high level, environmental regulation inhibits carbon emissions, with a stronger degree of inhibition at a higher level. (4) When energy intensity is at a low level, environmental regulation promotes carbon emissions, while at a high level, environmental regulation inhibits carbon emissions. Accordingly, we suggest that countries along the Belt and Road follow the road of sustainable and low-carbon development, which should further enhance their focus on environment protection, improve their environmental awareness, and take environmental regulation measures rationally to reduce carbon emissions. Meanwhile, relevant adjustments should be done on technical innovation, industrial structure, and energy intensity to achieve carbon emission reduction.