Secular Trends in Head Size and Cerebral Volumes In the Framingham Heart Study for Birth Years 1902–1985

Background Recent data suggest that dementia incidence is declining. We investigated whether similar secular trends consisting of increasing size of brain structures and improving memory performance could be simultaneously occurring as a possible explanation. Method The Framingham Heart Study is a 3 generation, longitudinal study that includes cognitive assessment and medical surveillance. This study cohort consisted of 4,506 unique, non-demented, stroke free, individuals with brain MRI, cognitive assessment, and demographic information spanning dates of birth from 1902 to 1985. Outcomes consisted of height, MRI, and memory measures. Covariates included age at MRI, sex, decade of birth, and all interactions. Models with neuropsychological outcomes also included educational achievement as a covariate. Results Height and intracranial (TCV), hippocampus and cortical gray matter volumes were significantly larger, and memory performance significantly better, with advancing decades of birth after adjusting for age, sex, and interactions. Sensitivity analysis using progressively restricted age-ranges to reduce the association between age and decade of birth, confirmed the findings. Mediation analysis showed that hippocampal volume mediated approximately 5–7% of the effect of decade of birth on logical memory performance. Discussion These findings indicate improvement in brain health and memory performance with advancing decades of birth. Although brain structures are under substantial genetic influence, we conclude that improved early life environmental influences over ensuing decades likely explain these results. We hypothesize that these secular improvements are consistent with declining dementia incidence in this cohort potentially through a mechanism of increased brain reserve.