Tourism Development under Water-Energy Dual Constraints: A Case Study from Xinjiang Based on Different Emergency Scenarios

The concept of green development requires that tourism development should be constrained by water and energy. This paper first constructed the calculation model of tourism water supply (TWS) based on water resources, economy, population, and employment. Second, according to the tourism life cycle theory, the energy-related water footprint account was built and combined with energy and water consumption, to realize water-energy dual constraints. Then, a suitability model between TWS and tourism water footprint (TWF) was established. Last, this paper predicted the growth rate of tourists in Xinjiang under the “suitability” state between TWS and TWF. Results show that in a future emergency-free setting, the average annual growth rate of tourists must be below 9.63% to maintain the “suitability” state, and in the context of emergencies damaging public health or socio-economic stability, the average annual growth rate may rise to 12.79%. In any scenario, the cap on tourist numbers in Xinjiang should be around 1.326 billion person-days in 2025, in line with the government’s planning goal. Last, this paper proposed suggestions to advance the green development of tourism from three angles: strengthening water conservation policies, promoting digital tourism, and setting multiple environmental monitoring mechanisms.