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Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning

The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged ≥18 years who fulfilled t...

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Autores principales: Queiro, Rubén, Seoane-Mato, Daniel, Laiz, Ana, Galindez Agirregoikoa, Eva, Montilla, Carlos, Park, Hye S., Tasende, Jose A. Pinto, Baute, Juan J. Bethencourt, Joven Ibáñez, Beatriz, Toniolo, Elide, Ramírez, Julio, Montero, Nuria, Pruenza García-Hinojosa, Cristina, Serrano García, Ana
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9917876/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36769579
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030931
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author Queiro, Rubén
Seoane-Mato, Daniel
Laiz, Ana
Galindez Agirregoikoa, Eva
Montilla, Carlos
Park, Hye S.
Tasende, Jose A. Pinto
Baute, Juan J. Bethencourt
Joven Ibáñez, Beatriz
Toniolo, Elide
Ramírez, Julio
Montero, Nuria
Pruenza García-Hinojosa, Cristina
Serrano García, Ana
author_facet Queiro, Rubén
Seoane-Mato, Daniel
Laiz, Ana
Galindez Agirregoikoa, Eva
Montilla, Carlos
Park, Hye S.
Tasende, Jose A. Pinto
Baute, Juan J. Bethencourt
Joven Ibáñez, Beatriz
Toniolo, Elide
Ramírez, Julio
Montero, Nuria
Pruenza García-Hinojosa, Cristina
Serrano García, Ana
author_sort Queiro, Rubén
collection PubMed
description The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged ≥18 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and had less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. The moderate-to-high activity of PsA was defined as DAPSA > 14. We trained a logistic regression model and random forest–type and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. The sample comprised 158 patients. At the first follow-up visit, 20.8% of the patients who attended the clinic had a moderate-to-severe disease. This percentage rose to 21.2% on the second visit. The variables predicting moderate-high activity were the PsAID score, tender joint count, level of physical activity, and sex. The mean values of the measures of validity of the machine learning algorithms were all high, especially sensitivity (98%; 95% CI: 86.89–100.00). PsAID was the most important variable in the prediction algorithms, reinforcing the convenience of its inclusion in daily clinical practice. Strategies that focus on the needs of women with PsA should be considered.
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spelling pubmed-99178762023-02-11 Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning Queiro, Rubén Seoane-Mato, Daniel Laiz, Ana Galindez Agirregoikoa, Eva Montilla, Carlos Park, Hye S. Tasende, Jose A. Pinto Baute, Juan J. Bethencourt Joven Ibáñez, Beatriz Toniolo, Elide Ramírez, Julio Montero, Nuria Pruenza García-Hinojosa, Cristina Serrano García, Ana J Clin Med Article The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged ≥18 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and had less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. The moderate-to-high activity of PsA was defined as DAPSA > 14. We trained a logistic regression model and random forest–type and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. The sample comprised 158 patients. At the first follow-up visit, 20.8% of the patients who attended the clinic had a moderate-to-severe disease. This percentage rose to 21.2% on the second visit. The variables predicting moderate-high activity were the PsAID score, tender joint count, level of physical activity, and sex. The mean values of the measures of validity of the machine learning algorithms were all high, especially sensitivity (98%; 95% CI: 86.89–100.00). PsAID was the most important variable in the prediction algorithms, reinforcing the convenience of its inclusion in daily clinical practice. Strategies that focus on the needs of women with PsA should be considered. MDPI 2023-01-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9917876/ /pubmed/36769579 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030931 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Queiro, Rubén
Seoane-Mato, Daniel
Laiz, Ana
Galindez Agirregoikoa, Eva
Montilla, Carlos
Park, Hye S.
Tasende, Jose A. Pinto
Baute, Juan J. Bethencourt
Joven Ibáñez, Beatriz
Toniolo, Elide
Ramírez, Julio
Montero, Nuria
Pruenza García-Hinojosa, Cristina
Serrano García, Ana
Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning
title Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning
title_full Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning
title_fullStr Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning
title_full_unstemmed Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning
title_short Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis—Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning
title_sort moderate-high disease activity in patients with recent-onset psoriatic arthritis—multivariable prediction model based on machine learning
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9917876/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36769579
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030931
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