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Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations

Managing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a major challenge for physicians and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impact of the pandemic on patient behaviors and disruptions in medical care, we used a combination of population-based modeling, system dynamics simulation, and...

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Autores principales: Suzuki, Gen, Iwakiri, Ryuichi, Udagawa, Eri, Ma, Sindy, Takayama, Ryoko, Nishiura, Hiroshi, Nakamura, Koshi, Burns, Samuel P., D’Alessandro, Paul Michael, Fernandez, Jovelle
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9917920/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36769406
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030757
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author Suzuki, Gen
Iwakiri, Ryuichi
Udagawa, Eri
Ma, Sindy
Takayama, Ryoko
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Nakamura, Koshi
Burns, Samuel P.
D’Alessandro, Paul Michael
Fernandez, Jovelle
author_facet Suzuki, Gen
Iwakiri, Ryuichi
Udagawa, Eri
Ma, Sindy
Takayama, Ryoko
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Nakamura, Koshi
Burns, Samuel P.
D’Alessandro, Paul Michael
Fernandez, Jovelle
author_sort Suzuki, Gen
collection PubMed
description Managing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a major challenge for physicians and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impact of the pandemic on patient behaviors and disruptions in medical care, we used a combination of population-based modeling, system dynamics simulation, and linear optimization. Synthetic IBD populations in Tokyo and Hokkaido were created by localizing an existing US-based synthetic IBD population using data from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare in Japan. A clinical pathway of IBD-specific disease progression was constructed and calibrated using longitudinal claims data from JMDC Inc for patients with IBD before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key points considered for disruptions in patient behavior (demand) and medical care (supply) were diagnosis of new patients, clinic visits for new patients seeking care and diagnosed patients receiving continuous care, number of procedures, and the interval between procedures or biologic prescriptions. COVID-19 had a large initial impact and subsequent smaller impacts on demand and supply despite higher infection rates. Our population model (Behavior Predictor) and patient treatment simulation model (Demand Simulator) represent the dynamics of clinical care demand among patients with IBD in Japan, both in recapitulating historical demand curves and simulating future demand during disruption scenarios, such as pandemic, earthquake, and economic crisis.
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spelling pubmed-99179202023-02-11 Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations Suzuki, Gen Iwakiri, Ryuichi Udagawa, Eri Ma, Sindy Takayama, Ryoko Nishiura, Hiroshi Nakamura, Koshi Burns, Samuel P. D’Alessandro, Paul Michael Fernandez, Jovelle J Clin Med Article Managing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a major challenge for physicians and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impact of the pandemic on patient behaviors and disruptions in medical care, we used a combination of population-based modeling, system dynamics simulation, and linear optimization. Synthetic IBD populations in Tokyo and Hokkaido were created by localizing an existing US-based synthetic IBD population using data from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare in Japan. A clinical pathway of IBD-specific disease progression was constructed and calibrated using longitudinal claims data from JMDC Inc for patients with IBD before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key points considered for disruptions in patient behavior (demand) and medical care (supply) were diagnosis of new patients, clinic visits for new patients seeking care and diagnosed patients receiving continuous care, number of procedures, and the interval between procedures or biologic prescriptions. COVID-19 had a large initial impact and subsequent smaller impacts on demand and supply despite higher infection rates. Our population model (Behavior Predictor) and patient treatment simulation model (Demand Simulator) represent the dynamics of clinical care demand among patients with IBD in Japan, both in recapitulating historical demand curves and simulating future demand during disruption scenarios, such as pandemic, earthquake, and economic crisis. MDPI 2023-01-18 /pmc/articles/PMC9917920/ /pubmed/36769406 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030757 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Suzuki, Gen
Iwakiri, Ryuichi
Udagawa, Eri
Ma, Sindy
Takayama, Ryoko
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Nakamura, Koshi
Burns, Samuel P.
D’Alessandro, Paul Michael
Fernandez, Jovelle
Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
title Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
title_full Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
title_fullStr Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
title_full_unstemmed Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
title_short Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
title_sort computational simulation model to predict behavior changes in inflammatory bowel disease patients during the covid-19 pandemic: analysis of two regional japanese populations
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9917920/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36769406
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030757
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