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Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations
Managing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a major challenge for physicians and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impact of the pandemic on patient behaviors and disruptions in medical care, we used a combination of population-based modeling, system dynamics simulation, and...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9917920/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36769406 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030757 |
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author | Suzuki, Gen Iwakiri, Ryuichi Udagawa, Eri Ma, Sindy Takayama, Ryoko Nishiura, Hiroshi Nakamura, Koshi Burns, Samuel P. D’Alessandro, Paul Michael Fernandez, Jovelle |
author_facet | Suzuki, Gen Iwakiri, Ryuichi Udagawa, Eri Ma, Sindy Takayama, Ryoko Nishiura, Hiroshi Nakamura, Koshi Burns, Samuel P. D’Alessandro, Paul Michael Fernandez, Jovelle |
author_sort | Suzuki, Gen |
collection | PubMed |
description | Managing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a major challenge for physicians and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impact of the pandemic on patient behaviors and disruptions in medical care, we used a combination of population-based modeling, system dynamics simulation, and linear optimization. Synthetic IBD populations in Tokyo and Hokkaido were created by localizing an existing US-based synthetic IBD population using data from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare in Japan. A clinical pathway of IBD-specific disease progression was constructed and calibrated using longitudinal claims data from JMDC Inc for patients with IBD before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key points considered for disruptions in patient behavior (demand) and medical care (supply) were diagnosis of new patients, clinic visits for new patients seeking care and diagnosed patients receiving continuous care, number of procedures, and the interval between procedures or biologic prescriptions. COVID-19 had a large initial impact and subsequent smaller impacts on demand and supply despite higher infection rates. Our population model (Behavior Predictor) and patient treatment simulation model (Demand Simulator) represent the dynamics of clinical care demand among patients with IBD in Japan, both in recapitulating historical demand curves and simulating future demand during disruption scenarios, such as pandemic, earthquake, and economic crisis. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9917920 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-99179202023-02-11 Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations Suzuki, Gen Iwakiri, Ryuichi Udagawa, Eri Ma, Sindy Takayama, Ryoko Nishiura, Hiroshi Nakamura, Koshi Burns, Samuel P. D’Alessandro, Paul Michael Fernandez, Jovelle J Clin Med Article Managing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a major challenge for physicians and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the impact of the pandemic on patient behaviors and disruptions in medical care, we used a combination of population-based modeling, system dynamics simulation, and linear optimization. Synthetic IBD populations in Tokyo and Hokkaido were created by localizing an existing US-based synthetic IBD population using data from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare in Japan. A clinical pathway of IBD-specific disease progression was constructed and calibrated using longitudinal claims data from JMDC Inc for patients with IBD before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key points considered for disruptions in patient behavior (demand) and medical care (supply) were diagnosis of new patients, clinic visits for new patients seeking care and diagnosed patients receiving continuous care, number of procedures, and the interval between procedures or biologic prescriptions. COVID-19 had a large initial impact and subsequent smaller impacts on demand and supply despite higher infection rates. Our population model (Behavior Predictor) and patient treatment simulation model (Demand Simulator) represent the dynamics of clinical care demand among patients with IBD in Japan, both in recapitulating historical demand curves and simulating future demand during disruption scenarios, such as pandemic, earthquake, and economic crisis. MDPI 2023-01-18 /pmc/articles/PMC9917920/ /pubmed/36769406 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030757 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Suzuki, Gen Iwakiri, Ryuichi Udagawa, Eri Ma, Sindy Takayama, Ryoko Nishiura, Hiroshi Nakamura, Koshi Burns, Samuel P. D’Alessandro, Paul Michael Fernandez, Jovelle Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations |
title | Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations |
title_full | Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations |
title_fullStr | Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations |
title_full_unstemmed | Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations |
title_short | Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations |
title_sort | computational simulation model to predict behavior changes in inflammatory bowel disease patients during the covid-19 pandemic: analysis of two regional japanese populations |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9917920/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36769406 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12030757 |
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