Do Individualized Patient-Specific Situations Predict the Progression Rate and Fate of Knee Osteoarthritis? Prediction of Knee Osteoarthritis

Factors affecting the progression rate and fate of osteoarthritis need to be analyzed when considering patient-specific situation. This study aimed to identify the rate of remarkable progression and fate of primary knee osteoarthritis based on patient-specific situations. Between May 2003 and May 2019, 83,280 patients with knee pain were recruited for this study from the clinical data warehouse. Finally, 2492 knees with pain that were followed up for more than one year were analyzed. For analyzing affecting factors, patient-specific information was categorized and classified as demographic, radiologic, social, comorbidity disorders, and surgical intervention data. The degree of contribution of factors to the progression rate and the fate of osteoarthritis was analyzed. Bone mineral density (BMD), Kellgren–Lawrence (K–L) grade, and physical occupational demands were major contributors to the progression rate of osteoarthritis. Hypertension, initial K–L grade, and physical occupational demands were major contributors to the outcome of osteoarthritis. The progression rate and fate of osteoarthritis were mostly affected by the initial K–L grade and physical occupational demands. Patients who underwent surgical intervention for less than five years had the highest proportion of initial K–L grade 2 (49.0%) and occupations with high physical demand (41.3%). In identifying several contributing factors, the initial K–L grade and physical occupational demands were the most important factors. BMD and hypertension were also major contributors to the progression and fate of osteoarthritis, and the degree of contribution was lower compared to the two major factors.