Acute promyelocytic leukaemia: population-based study of epidemiology and outcome with ATRA and oral-ATO from 1991 to 2021

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology and treatment of acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL) are changing. We have incorporated oral arsenic trioxide (oral-ATO) into induction/maintenance. METHODS: Newly-diagnosed APL from 1991 to 2021 divided into three 10-year periods were studied to define its epidemiology and how oral-ATO impacted on its outcome. Primary endpoints included APL incidence, early deaths (ED, first 30 days), and overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints included post-30-day OS, relapse-free survival (RFS), and incidence of second cancers. RESULTS: APL occurred in 374 males and 387 females at a median age of 44 (1–97) years. Annual incidences increased progressively, averaging 0.32 per 100,000 people. All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA)-based and oral-ATO-based regimens were used in 469 and 282 patients. There were 144 EDs, occurring almost exclusively in ATRA-based inductions (N = 139), being more with males, age > 50 years, leucocyte > 10 × 10(9)/L, diagnosis during 1991–2009 and fewer with oral-ATO-based regimens. After a median of 75 (interquartile range: 14–161) months, 5-year and 10-year OS were 68.1% and 63.3%, inferior with males, age > 50 years, leucocyte > 10 × 10(9)/L, high-risk Sanz score and superior with oral-ATO-based regimens. Factoring out EDs, 5-year and 10-year post-30-day OS were 84.0% and 78.1%, inferior with males and superior with oral-ATO-based regimens. In 607 CR1 patients, the 5-year RFS was 83.8%, superior with diagnosis in 2010–2021 and oral-ATO-based regimens. Second cancers developed in 21 patients, unrelated to oral-ATO-based regimens. CONCLUSIONS: There was an increasing incidence of APL, and all survivals were superior with the use of oral-ATO-based regimens. This study formed part of the Acute Promyelocytic Leukaemia Asian Consortium Project (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04251754). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10612-z.