Maternal circulating metabolic biomarkers and their prediction performance for gestational diabetes mellitus related macrosomia

INTRODUCTION: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a metabolism-related pregnancy complication, is significantly associated with an increased risk of macrosomia. We hypothesized that maternal circulating metabolic biomarkers differed between women with GDM and macrosomia (GDM-M) and women with GDM and normal neonatal weight (GDM-N), and had good prediction performance for GDM-M. METHODS: Plasma samples from 44 GDM-M and 44 GDM-N were analyzed using Olink Proseek multiplex metabolism assay targeting 92 biomarkers. Combined different clinical characteristics and Olink markers, LASSO regression was used to optimize variable selection, and Logistic regression was applied to build a predictive model. Nomogram was developed based on the selected variables visually. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and clinical impact curve were used to validate the model. RESULTS: We found 4 metabolism-related biomarkers differing between groups [CLUL1 (Clusterin-like protein 1), VCAN (Versican core protein), FCRL1 (Fc receptor-like protein 1), RNASE3 (Eosinophil cationic protein), FDR < 0.05]. Based on the different clinical characteristics and Olink markers, a total of nine predictors, namely pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), weight gain at 24 gestational weeks (gw), parity, oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2 h glucose at 24 gw, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) at 24 gw, and plasma expression of CLUL1, VCAN and RNASE3 at 24 gw, were identified by LASSO regression. The model constructed using these 9 predictors displayed good prediction performance for GDM-M, with an area under the ROC of 0.970 (sensitivity = 0.955, specificity = 0.886), and was well calibrated (P (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) = 0.897). CONCLUSION: The Model included pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain at 24 gw, parity, OGTT 2 h glucose at 24 gw, HDL and LDL at 24 gw, and plasma expression of CLUL1, VCAN and RNASE3 at 24 gw had good prediction performance for predicting macrosomia in women with GDM. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-023-05440-9.