Genomic prediction for grain yield and micro-environmental sensitivity in winter wheat

Individuals within a common environment experience variations due to unique and non-identifiable micro-environmental factors. Genetic sensitivity to micro-environmental variation (i.e. micro-environmental sensitivity) can be identified in residuals, and genotypes with lower micro-environmental sensitivity can show greater resilience towards environmental perturbations. Micro-environmental sensitivity has been studied in animals; however, research on this topic is limited in plants and lacking in wheat. In this article, we aimed to (i) quantify the influence of genetic variation on residual dispersion and the genetic correlation between genetic effects on (expressed) phenotypes and residual dispersion for wheat grain yield using a double hierarchical generalized linear model (DHGLM); and (ii) evaluate the predictive performance of the proposed DHGLM for prediction of additive genetic effects on (expressed) phenotypes and its residual dispersion. Analyses were based on 2,456 advanced breeding lines tested in replicated trials within and across different environments in Denmark and genotyped with a 15K SNP-Illumina-BeadChip. We found that micro-environmental sensitivity for grain yield is heritable, and there is potential for its reduction. The genetic correlation between additive effects on (expressed) phenotypes and dispersion was investigated, and we observed an intermediate correlation. From these results, we concluded that breeding for reduced micro-environmental sensitivity is possible and can be included within breeding objectives without compromising selection for increased yield. The predictive ability and variance inflation for predictions of the DHGLM and a linear mixed model allowing heteroscedasticity of residual variance in different environments (LMM-HET) were evaluated using leave-one-line-out cross-validation. The LMM-HET and DHGLM showed good and similar performance for predicting additive effects on (expressed) phenotypes. In addition, the accuracy of predicting genetic effects on residual dispersion was sufficient to allow genetic selection for resilience. Such findings suggests that DHGLM may be a good choice to increase grain yield and reduce its micro-environmental sensitivity.