A novel nomogram to predict survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization: a tool for retreatment decision making

BACKGROUND: There is still no standardized policy regarding how to identify patients who are not benefiting from transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram model to predict the survival rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after TACE. METHODS: A total of 578 HCC patients undergoing initial TACE at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were retrospectively recruited to the study. The patients were randomly divided into 2 cohorts: a training cohort (n=405) and a validation cohort (n=173). To develop the nomogram, Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. The performances of the nomogram were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and were compared to 4 developed prognostic models. RESULTS: We used 5 independent risk factors including postoperative albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, tumor diameter, number of tumors, portal vein invasion, and tumor response to develop the nomogram. Calibration curves showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.753 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.722, 0.784], which was higher than the other prognostic models (P<0.001). The DCA showed that the nomogram had the highest net benefit among the models. According to predicted survival risk, the nomogram could divide patients into 3 groups (P<0.001). All the results were verified in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and validated a nomogram model for HCC patients undergoing TACE, which could predict the survival rate and provide support for further treatment strategies.