Association of four lipid-derived indicators with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a Chinese population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that lipid-derived indicators are associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in various populations; however, it is unclear which lipid-derived indicators could effectively predict T2D risk. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the association between four lipid-derived indicators and T2D risk. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis from a large cohort that included data from 114,700 Chinese individuals aged 20 years and older from 11 cities and 32 sites. The association between four lipid-derived indicators and T2D risk was determined using Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves, Cox regression, and restricted cubic spline analyses. This study used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for assessing the ability of four lipid-derived indicators to accurately predict the development of T2D during follow-up. RESULTS: This study included a total of 114,700 participants, with a mean age of 44.15. These individuals were followed up for 3.1 years, of which 2668 participants developed T2D. ROC curve analysis showed that TyG was the most robust predictor of 3-year [aera under the ROC (AUC) = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.768, 0.772] and 5-year T2D risk (AUC = 0.763, 95% CI: 0.760, 0.765). In addition, sensitivity analysis showed an association between TyG and an increased incidence of T2D. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that TyG was a superior for predicting the risk of developing T2D in the general Chinese population. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-023-01790-7.