Dosimetric and clinical analysis of pseudo-progression versus recurrence after hypo-fractionated radiotherapy for brain metastases

BACKGROUND: The main challenge in follow-up duration of patients with brain metastases after stereotactic radiotherapy is to distinguish between pseudo-progression and tumor recurrence. The objective of this study is to retrospectively analyze the predictive factors. METHODS: The study included 123 patients with enlarged brain metastases after hypo-fractionated radiotherapy in our center from March 2009 to October 2019, and the baseline clinical features, radiotherapy planning parameters, and enhanced magnetic resonance imaging before and after radiation therapy were analyzed. Logistic regression was performed to compare the differences between groups. Independent risk factors with P < 0.05 and associated with recurrence were used to establish a nomogram prediction model and validated by Bootstrap repeated sampling, which was validated in an internal cohort (n = 23) from October 2019 to December 2021. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 68.4 months (range, 8.9–146.2 months). A total of 76 (61.8%) patients were evaluated as pseudo-progression, 47 patients (38.2%) were evaluated as tumor recurrence. The median time to pseudo-progression and tumor recurrence were 18.3 months (quartile range, 9.4–27.8 months) and 12.9 months (quartile range, 8.7–19.6 months) respectively. Variables associated with tumor recurrence included: gross tumor volume ≥ 6 cc, biological effective dose < 60 Gy, target coverage < 96% and no targeted therapy. The area under curve values were 0.730 and 0.967 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Thirty-one patients received salvage therapy in the tumor recurrence group. The survival time in pseudo-progression and tumor recurrence groups were 66.3 months (95% CI 56.8–75.9 months) and 39.6 months (95% CI 29.2–50.0 months, respectively; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and dosimetry features of hypo-fractionated radiation therapy based on enhanced brain magnetic resonance can help distinguish pseudo-progression from tumor recurrence after hypo-fractionated radiotherapy for brain metastases. Gross tumor volume, biological effective dose, target coverage, and having received targeted therapy or not were factors associated with the occurrence of tumor recurrence, and the individual risk could be estimated by the nomogram effectively. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13014-023-02214-7.