Low hemoglobin and PSA kinetics are prognostic factors of overall survival in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients

The objective of this study was to identify the prognostic factors and to propose a new risk model in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients. The clinical data were retrospectively obtained for 102 mCRPC patients who received cancer treatment between 2005 and 2018 at the University of Tokyo Hospital. We investigated clinical and pathological parameters, including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetic profiles under androgen deprivation treatment, and identified predictors of overall survival (OS). The median age and PSA were 73 (Interquartile range [IQR], 68–79) years and 5.00 (IQR, 2.77–13.6) ng/ml. The median follow-up was 34 (IQR, 17–56) months. In univariate analysis, ‘lymph node metastasis’, ‘Hemoglobin (Hb)’, ‘Time to nadir PSA (TNPSA)’, ‘PSA doubling time (PSADT)’, ‘Time to CRPC’, and ‘presence of pain’ were prognostic factors. Multivariate analysis identified ‘Hb < 11 g/dL’, ‘TNPSA < 7 months’ and ‘PSADT < 5 months’ as independent prognostic factors of OS. The high-risk group (patients with two or three factors) demonstrated shorter OS (23 vs. 50 months) with an increased risk of death (HR = 2.997; 95% CI 1.632–5.506; P = 0.0004). The proposed risk stratification model may contribute to the prediction of survival and provide supportive information in treatment decision-making.