Conservation of the Goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) under climate changes in Iraq

Climate is a vital factor that shapes habitat suitability for many species across space and time. Gazella subgutturosa (Goitered gazelle) is a globally vulnerable mammal already extinct in some areas of Armenia and Georgia and is highly threatened in other areas of its distribution. In this study, new data were gathered for 33 locations in north-eastern Iraq, and then together with literature data, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were used to explore the geographical distribution of the gazelle under current and future climate change scenarios. We studied the relationship between seven climate variables and 43 occurrence records to predict habitat suitability of the gazelle under the current climate, and also under four future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for both 2050 and 2080). Annual precipitation and isothermality had the most influence on the distribution of Gazella subgutturosa. The most suitable habitat in both the current and future scenarios was located in north-eastern Iraq close to the Iranian border near the Zagros Mountains. There was no difference in habitat suitability for the gazelle inside Iraqi Protected Areas (PAs) compared to outside the PAs. Using the occurrence records and IUCN Red List national assessments, we found Iraqi Goitered gazelle populations to be classified as Endangered (EN). Our results suggest urgent conservation planning is needed to save this species, including the establishment of new PAs. These results contribute new baseline information, which was currently missing Goitered gazelle in about Iraq, to the IUCN SSC Antelope Specialist Group, which will hopefully aid with future global assessments and conservation.