Long-term fine particular exposure and incidence of frailty in older adults: findings from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey

BACKGROUND: The association between fine particular matter (PM(2.5)) and frailty is less studied, and the national burden of PM(2.5)-related frailty in China is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between PM(2.5) exposure and incident frailty in older adults, and estimate the corresponding disease burden. DESIGN: Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998 to 2014. SETTING: Twenty-three provinces in China. SUBJECTS: A total of 25,047 participants aged ≥65-year-old. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the association between PM(2.5) and frailty in older adults. A method adapted from the Global Burden of Disease Study was used to calculate the PM(2.5)-related frailty disease burden. RESULTS: A total of 5,733 incidents of frailty were observed during 107,814.8 person-years follow-up. A 10 μg/m(3) increment of PM(2.5) was associated with a 5.0% increase in the risk of frailty (Hazard Ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence interval = [1.03–1.07]). Monotonic, but non-linear exposure-response, relationships of PM(2.5) with risk of frailty were observed, and slopes were steeper at concentrations >50 μg/m³. Considering the interaction between population ageing and mitigation of PM(2.5), the PM(2.5)-related frailty cases were almost unchanged in 2010, 2020 and 2030, with estimations of 664,097, 730,858 and 665,169, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This nation-wide prospective cohort study showed a positive association between long-term PM(2.5) exposure and frailty incidence. The estimated disease burden indicated that implementing clean air actions may prevent frailty and substantially offset the burden of population ageing worldwide.