Linking Life Cycle and Integrated Assessment Modeling to Evaluate Technologies in an Evolving System Context: A Power-to-Hydrogen Case Study for the United States

[Image: see text] Carbon-neutral hydrogen (H(2)) can reduce emissions from hard-to-electrify sectors and contribute to a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. Power-to-hydrogen (PtH(2)) technologies based on clean electricity can provide such H(2), yet their carbon intensities alone do not provide sufficient basis to judge their potential contribution to a sustainable and just energy transition. Introducing a prospective life cycle assessment framework to decipher the non-linear relationships between future technology and energy system dynamics over time, we showcase its relevance to inform research, development, demonstration, and deployment by comparing two PtH(2) technologies to steam methane reforming (SMR) across a series of environmental and resource-use metrics. We find that the system transitions in the power, cement, steel, and fuel sectors move impacts for both PtH(2) technologies to equal or lower levels by 2100 compared to 2020 per kg of H(2) except for metal depletion. The decarbonization of the United States power sector by 2035 allows PtH(2) to reach parity with SMR at 10 kg of CO(2e)/kg H(2) between 2030 and 2050. Updated H(2) radiative forcing and leakage levels only marginally affect these results. Biomass carbon removal and storage power technologies enable carbon-negative H(2) after 2040 at about −15 kg of CO(2e)/kg H(2). Still, both PtH(2) processes exhibit higher impacts across most other metrics, some of which are worsened by the decarbonization of the power sector. Observed increases in metal depletion and eco- and human toxicity levels can be reduced via PtH(2) energy and material use efficiency improvements, but the power sector decarbonization routes also warrant further review and cradle-to-grave assessments to show tradeoffs from a systems perspective.