Triglyceride glucose-body mass index and the risk of progression to diabetes from prediabetes: A 5-year cohort study in Chinese adults

OBJECTIVE: Evidence regarding the relationship between the triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) and the risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes remains limited. Our study aimed to investigate the relationship between them in patients with prediabetes. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from 25,279 patients with prediabetes who received health checks between 2010 and 2016. We used a Cox proportional-hazards regression model to examine the relationship between TyG-BMI and diabetes risk. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting to identify the nonlinear relationship between them. In addition, A series of sensitivity and subgroup analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: The mean age of the included participants was 49.29 ± 13.82 years old, and 1,6734 (66.2%) were male. The mean TyG-BMI was 219.47. The median follow-up time was 2.89 years, and 2,687 (10.63%) individuals had a final diagnosis of diabetes. After adjusting for covariates, TyG-BMI was positively linked with incident diabetes in patients with prediabetes (HR = 1.011, 95%CI 1.010–1.012). TyG-BMI had a non-linear connection with diabetes risk, and its inflection point was 231.66. Right and left effects sizes (HR) at the inflection point were 1.017 (95%CI:1.014–1.019) and 1.007 (95%CI:1.005–1.009), respectively. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of these results. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated a positive, non-linear relationship between the TyG-BMI and diabetes risk in Chinese patients with prediabetes. When the TyG-BMI was <231.66, there was a significant positive association between TyG-BMI and the risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes. This study serves as a reference to promote clinical consultation and optimize diabetes prevention decisions for patients with prediabetes.