Exploring the threshold for the start of respiratory syncytial virus infection epidemic season using sentinel surveillance data in Japan

INTRODUCTION: An unusual seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in Japan is observed in recent years after 2017, becoming challenging to prepare for: a seasonal shift from autumn–winter to summer–autumn in 2017–2019, no major epidemic in 2020, and an unusually high number of cases reported in 2021. METHODS: To early detect the start-timing of epidemic season, we explored the reference threshold for the start-timing of the epidemic period based on the number of cases per sentinel (CPS, a widely used indicator in Japanese surveillance system), using a relative operating characteristic curve analysis (with the epidemic period defined by effective reproduction number). RESULTS: The reference values of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Osaka, and Aichi Prefectures were 0.41, 0.39, 0.42, and 0.24, respectively. DISCUSSION: The reference CPS value could be a valuable indicator for detecting the RSV epidemic and may contribute to the planned introduction of monoclonal antibody against RSV to prevent severe outcomes.