High rate of postoperative upstaging of ductal carcinoma in situ when prioritizing ultrasound evaluation of mammography-detected lesions: a single-center retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The initial diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) can be upstaged to invasive cancer after definitive surgery. This study aimed to identify risk factors for DCIS upstaging using routine breast ultrasonography and mammography (MG) and to propose a prediction model. METHODS: In this single-center retrospective study, patients initially diagnosed with DCIS (January 2016–December 2017) were enrolled (final sample size = 272 lesions). Diagnostic modalities included ultrasound-guided core needle biopsy (US-CNB), MG-guided vacuum-assisted breast biopsy, and wire-localized surgical biopsy. Breast ultrasonography was routinely performed for all patients. US-CNB was prioritized for lesions visible on ultrasound. Lesions initially diagnosed as DCIS on biopsy with a final diagnosis of invasive cancer at definitive surgery were defined as “upstaged.” RESULTS: The postoperative upstaging rates were 70.5%, 9.7%, and 4.8% in the US-CNB, MG-guided vacuum-assisted breast biopsy, and wire-localized surgical biopsy groups, respectively. US-CNB, ultrasonographic lesion size, and high-grade DCIS were independent predictive factors for postoperative upstaging, which were used to construct a logistic regression model. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed good internal validation (area under the curve = 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Supplemental screening breast ultrasonography possibly contributes to lesion stratification. The low upstaging rate for ultrasound-invisible DCIS diagnosed by MG-guided procedures suggests that it is unnecessary to perform sentinel lymph node biopsy for lesions invisible on ultrasound. Case-by-case evaluation of DCIS detected by US-CNB can help surgeons determine if repeating biopsy with vacuum-assisted breast biopsy is necessary or if sentinel lymph node biopsy should accompany breast-preserving surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted with the approval of the institutional review board of our hospital (approval number 201610005RIND). As this was a retrospective review of clinical data, it was not registered prospectively. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-023-02900-6.