Incremental Value of Noncontrast Chest Computed Tomography-derived Parameters in Predicting Subclinical Carotid Atherosclerosis: From the PERSUADE Study

To investigate the incremental value of noncontrast chest computed tomography (CT)-derived parameters, such as coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and epicardial adipose tissue volume (EATv), in predicting subclinical carotid atherosclerosis above traditional risk factors in community-based asymptomatic populations of northern China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 2195 community-based asymptomatic individuals were enrolled from Jidong Oilfield in accordance with the PERSUADE study. CACS and EATv were measured on noncontrast chest CT. Demographics and ideal cardiovascular health score (ICHS) were collected through questionnaires. We recalculated the ideal cardiovascular health risk score (ICHRS) (ICHRS=14−ICHS) and standardized the parameters as log-CACS and body mass index adjusted EATv (i-EATv). Subclinical carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by Doppler sonography and defined as any prevalence of average carotid intima-media thickness ≥1.00 mm, appearance of carotid plaque, and carotid arterial stenosis in the areas of extracranial carotid arteries on both sides. RESULTS: A total of 451 (20.55%) individuals presented subclinical carotid atherosclerosis. CACS and EATv were significantly greater in the subclinical group, while ICHS was lower. In multivariate logistic regression, ICHRS (odds ratio [OR]=1.143, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.080-1.210, P<0.001), log-CACS (OR=1.701, 95% CI: 1.480-1.955, P<0.001), and i-EATv (OR=1.254, 95% CI: 1.173-1.341, P<0.001) were found to be independent risk predictors for subclinical carotid atherosclerosis. In receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, when combined with male sex and age level, the area under the curve of the ICHRS basic model increased from 0.627 (95% CI: 0.599-0.654) to 0.757 (95% CI: 0.732-0.781) (P<0.0001). Further adding log-CACS and i-EATv, the area under the curve demonstrated a statistically significant improvement (0.788 [95% CI: 0.765-0.812] vs. 0.757 [95% CI: 0.732-0.781], P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Noncontrast chest CT-derived parameters, including CACS and EATv, could provide significant incremental improvement for predicting subclinical carotid atherosclerosis beyond the conventional risk assessment model based on ICHRS.