Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model

Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we...

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Autores principales: Khalaf, Sanaa L., Flayyih, Hadeer S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2023
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9937065/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rico.2023.100214
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author Khalaf, Sanaa L.
Flayyih, Hadeer S.
author_facet Khalaf, Sanaa L.
Flayyih, Hadeer S.
author_sort Khalaf, Sanaa L.
collection PubMed
description Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we find the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] is 0.9422661124 which indicates and predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq will gradually subside until it is eradicated permanently with time. Additionally, we develop an optimal vaccination strategy with the goal of reducing COVID-19 infections and preventing their spread in Iraq, thereby putting a clear picture of control this pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-99370652023-02-21 Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model Khalaf, Sanaa L. Flayyih, Hadeer S. Results in Control and Optimization Article Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we find the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] is 0.9422661124 which indicates and predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq will gradually subside until it is eradicated permanently with time. Additionally, we develop an optimal vaccination strategy with the goal of reducing COVID-19 infections and preventing their spread in Iraq, thereby putting a clear picture of control this pandemic. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2023-03 2023-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9937065/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rico.2023.100214 Text en © 2023 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Khalaf, Sanaa L.
Flayyih, Hadeer S.
Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
title Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
title_full Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
title_fullStr Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
title_full_unstemmed Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
title_short Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
title_sort analysis, predicting, and controlling the covid-19 pandemic in iraq through sir model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9937065/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rico.2023.100214
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