Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the dynamic COVID-zero strategy on HIV incidence and mortality in China

BACKGROUND: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Chinese government implemented the dynamic COVID-zero strategy. We hypothesized that pandemic mitigation measures might have reduced the incidence, mortality rates, and case fatality ratios (CFRs) of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in 2020–2022. METHOD: We collected HIV incidence and mortality data from the website of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China from January 2015 to December 2022. We compared the observed and predicted HIV values in 2020–2022 with those in 2015–2019 using a two-ratio Z-test. RESULTS: From January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2022, a total of 480,747 HIV incident cases were reported in mainland China, of which 60,906 (per year) and 58,739 (per year) were reported in 2015–2019 (pre-COVID-19 stage) and 2020–2022 (post-COVID-19 stage), respectively. The average yearly HIV incidence decreased by 5.2450% (from 4.4143 to 4.1827 per 100,000 people, p < 0.001) in 2020–2022 compared with that in 2015–2019. However, the average yearly HIV mortality rates and CFRs increased by 14.1076 and 20.4238%, respectively (all p < 0.001), in 2020–2022 compared with those in 2015–2019. During the emergency phase in January 2020 to April 2020, the monthly incidence was significantly lower (23.7158%) than that during the corresponding period in 2015–2019, while the incidence during the routine stage in May 2020–December 2022 increased by 27.4334%, (all p < 0.001). The observed incidence and mortality rates for HIV decreased by 16.55 and 18.1052% in 2020, by 25.1274 and 20.2136% in 2021, and by 39.7921 and 31.7535% in 2022, respectively, compared with the predicted values, (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that China’s dynamic COVID-zero strategy may have partly disrupted HIV transmission and further slowed down its growth. Without China’s dynamic COVID-zero strategy, HIV incidence and deaths in the country would have likely remained high in 2020–2022. There is an urgent need to expand and improve HIV prevention, care, and treatment, as well as surveillance in the future. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15268-9.