Long-Term Visit-To-Visit Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Population: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

Objectives: To examine the association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) and incident diabetes mellitus (DM) risk in a Chinese population. Methods: Data comes from China Health and Nutrition Survey (n = 15,084). BPV was estimated as the average real variability (ARV) using at least three BP measurements from the year preceding the event and was divided into quartiles. Participants were also categorized into 9 groups on the basis of combinations of systolic BPV (SBPV) and diastolic BPV (DBPV) tertiles. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used. Results: During a median follow-up of 16.8 years, 1,030 (6.8%) participants developed diabetes (incidence rate: 4.65/1,000 person-years). The HRs (95% CIs) for the highest quartile (vs. the lowest quartile) of SBPV and DBPV were 1.60 (1.30–1.97) and 1.37 (1.13–1.67), respectively. Participants with both highest SBPV and DBPV tertile had an ≈89% higher risk of DM (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.47–2.42) compared with those in the both SBPV and DBPV tertile 1 group. Conclusion: Higher SBP ARV and DBP ARV were independently associated with increased risk of incident DM, which was augmented when both presented together.