Predictors of Rebleeding in Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding of Peptic Ulcer Etiology in Kashmiri Population

Background Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) represents a substantial clinical and economic burden and rebleeding is one of the most important predictors of morbidity and mortality. Identifying patients who are likely to rebleed is a critical component of effectively managing patients with bleeding peptic ulcers. So, the study was undertaken to look for predictors of rebleeding in patients with bleeding peptic ulcers and try to find out the new scoring system to predict rebleeding in our population. Material and methods A retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained hospital data of UGIB patients was done and 480 patients of endoscopically documented peptic ulcers whose complete data was available were taken for study. Results Among the studied patients, men constituted 84.6%, and most of the patients were in the third to sixth decade of life with a mean age of 40.9±15.9 years, 76% were from rural areas. Only males with a mean age of 38.4±19.8 rebled with a rebleeding rate of 2.9% only. Half of the patients who rebled were in shock at the time of presentation. Those who rebled received more units of blood transfusion (mean 3±1.8), had a large mean ulcer size of Forest class IIa and IIb and epinephrine injection monotherapy group with varied statistical significance. Among rebleeders (n=14), eight patients were managed by a second endoscopic therapy, and six (42.8%) rebleeders and 1.25% of patients in total needed surgery. Two patients ultimately died giving overall mortality of 0.4% and mortality of 14.3% among rebleeders. Conclusion Our study found a very low rebleeding rate and mortality which could be explained by a young population with fewer co-morbidities and better response to proton pump inhibitor therapy. The significant parameters related to rebleeding were shock at presentation, degree of smoking, units of blood transfused, ulcer size, and high-risk endoscopic stigmata.