Machine Learning Analysis of Postkeratoplasty Endothelial Cell Images for the Prediction of Future Graft Rejection

PURPOSE: This study developed machine learning (ML) classifiers of postoperative corneal endothelial cell images to identify postkeratoplasty patients at risk for allograft rejection within 1 to 24 months of treatment. METHODS: Central corneal endothelium specular microscopic images were obtained from 44 patients after Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK), half of whom had experienced graft rejection. After deep learning segmentation of images from all patients’ last and second-to-last imaging, time points prior to rejection were analyzed (175 and 168, respectively), and 432 quantitative features were extracted assessing cellular spatial arrangements and cell intensity values. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were trained on novel-to-this-application features from single time points, delta-radiomics, and traditional morphometrics (endothelial cell density, coefficient of variation, hexagonality) via 10 iterations of threefold cross-validation. Final assessments were evaluated on a held-out test set. RESULTS: ML classifiers trained on novel-to-this-application features outperformed those trained on traditional morphometrics for predicting future graft rejection. RF and LR models predicted post-DMEK patients' allograft rejection in the held-out test set with >0.80 accuracy. RF models trained on novel features from second-to-last time points and delta-radiomics predicted post-DMEK patients’ rejection with >0.70 accuracy. Cell-graph spatial arrangement, intensity, and shape features were most indicative of graft rejection. CONCLUSIONS: ML classifiers successfully predicted future graft rejections 1 to 24 months prior to clinically apparent rejection. This technology could aid clinicians to identify patients at risk for graft rejection and guide treatment plans accordingly. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: Our software applies ML techniques to clinical images and enhances patient care by detecting preclinical keratoplasty rejection.