Costimulatory molecule expression profile as a biomarker to predict prognosis and chemotherapy response for patients with small cell lung cancer

Owing to the paucity of specimens, progress in identifying prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers for small cell lung cancer (SCLC) has been stagnant for decades. Considering that the costimulatory molecules are essential elements in modulating immune responses and determining therapeutic response, we systematically revealed the expression landscape and identified a costimulatory molecule-based signature (CMS) to predict prognosis and chemotherapy response for SCLCs for the first time. We found T cell activation was restrained in SCLCs, and costimulatory molecules exhibited widespread abnormal genetic alterations and expression. Using a LASSO Cox regression model, the CMS was built with a training cohort of 77 cases, which successfully divided patients into high- or low-risk groups with significantly different prognosis and chemotherapy benefit (both P < 0.001). The CMS was well validated in an independent cohort containing 131 samples with qPCR data. ROC and C-index analysis confirmed the superior predictive performance of the CMS in comparison with other clinicopathological parameters from different cohorts. Importantly, the CMS was confirmed as a significantly independent prognosticator for clinical outcomes and chemotherapy response in SCLCs through multivariate Cox analysis. Further analysis revealed that low-risk patients were characteristic by an activated immune phenotype with distinct expression of immune checkpoints. In summary, we firstly uncovered the expression heterogeneity of costimulatory molecules in SCLC and successfully constructed a novel predictive CMS. The identified signature contributed to more accurate patient stratification and provided robust prognostic value in estimating survival and the clinical response to chemotherapy, allowing optimization of treatment and prognosis management for patients with SCLC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00262-022-03280-8.