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Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries

BACKGROUND: Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Sahar...

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Autores principales: Epstein, Adrienne, Harris, Orlando O., Benmarhnia, Tarik, Camlin, Carol S., Weiser, Sheri D.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9948323/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36814247
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z
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author Epstein, Adrienne
Harris, Orlando O.
Benmarhnia, Tarik
Camlin, Carol S.
Weiser, Sheri D.
author_facet Epstein, Adrienne
Harris, Orlando O.
Benmarhnia, Tarik
Camlin, Carol S.
Weiser, Sheri D.
author_sort Epstein, Adrienne
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys. METHODS: Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status. RESULTS: Rainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains. CONCLUSION: Precipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z.
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spelling pubmed-99483232023-02-24 Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries Epstein, Adrienne Harris, Orlando O. Benmarhnia, Tarik Camlin, Carol S. Weiser, Sheri D. BMC Public Health Research BACKGROUND: Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys. METHODS: Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status. RESULTS: Rainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains. CONCLUSION: Precipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z. BioMed Central 2023-02-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9948323/ /pubmed/36814247 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Epstein, Adrienne
Harris, Orlando O.
Benmarhnia, Tarik
Camlin, Carol S.
Weiser, Sheri D.
Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
title Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
title_full Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
title_fullStr Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
title_full_unstemmed Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
title_short Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries
title_sort do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan africa? an observational study from 23 countries
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9948323/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36814247
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z
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