A novel prognostic model based on pyroptosis-related genes for multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable and relapse-prone disease with apparently prognostic heterogeneity. At present, the risk stratification of myeloma is still incomplete. Pyroptosis, a type of programmed cell death, has been shown to regulate tumor growth and may have potential prognostic value. However, the role of pyroptosis-related genes (PRGs) in MM remains undetermined. The aims of this study were to identify potential prognostic biomarkers and to construct a predictive model related to PRGs. METHODS: Sequencing and clinical data were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) was performed to identify molecular subtype screening. LASSO regression was used to screen for prognostic markers, and then a risk score model was constructed. The Maxstat package was utilized to calculate the optimal cutoff value, according to which patients were divided into a high-risk group and a low-risk group, and the survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method. Nomograms and calibration curves were established using the rms package. RESULTS: A total of 33 PRGs were extracted from the TCGA database underlying which 4 MM molecular subtypes were defined. Patients in cluster 1 had poorer survival than those in cluster 2 (p = 0.035). A total of 9 PRGs were screened out as prognostic markers, and the predictive ability of the 9-gene risk score for 3-year survival was best (AUC = 0.658). Patients in the high-risk group had worse survival than those in the low-risk group (p < 0.001), which was consistent with the results verified by the GSE2658 dataset. The nomogram constructed by gender, age, International Staging System (ISS) stage, and risk score had the best prognostic predictive performance with a c-index of 0.721. CONCLUSION: Our model could enhance the predictive ability of ISS staging and give a reference for clinical decision-making. The new, prognostic, and pyroptosis-related markers screened out by us may facilitate the development of novel risk stratification for MM. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12920-023-01455-5.