Diurnal rhythmicity of wearable device-measured wrist temperature predicts future disease incidence in the UK Biobank

Many chronic disease symptomatologies involve desynchronized sleep-wake cycles, indicative of disrupted biorhythms. This can be interrogated using body temperature rhythms, which are well-established biomarkers for circadian clock function. Here, we investigated the association of wrist temperature amplitudes with a future onset of disease in the UK Biobank one year after actigraphy. Among 425 disease conditions (range n = 200–6,728) compared to controls (range n = 62,107 − 91,134), a total of 73 (36.5%) disease phenotypes were significantly associated with decreased amplitudes of wrist temperature (Benjamini-Hochberg FDR q < 0.05) and 26 (13%) PheCODEs passed a more stringent significance level (Bonferroni-correction α < 0.05). Here, for example, a two-standard deviation (1.8° Celsius) lower wrist temperature amplitude corresponded to hazard ratios of 1.91 (1.58–2.31 95% CI) for NAFLD, 1.69 (1.53–1.88) for type 2 diabetes, 1.25 (1.14–1.37) for renal failure, 1.23 (1.17–1.3) for hypertension, and 1.22 (1.11–1.33) for pneumonia. A comprehensive phenome-wide atlas of the identified mappings has been made available at http://bioinf.itmat.upenn.edu/biorhythm_atlas/. These findings strongly suggest peripheral thermoregulation as a digital biomarker.