Advancing the understanding of forest conservation dynamics through livelihood and landscape change scenarios: a case study in Chiapas, Mexico

Forest conversion and conservation in rural settings are linked to both social and biophysical drivers. However, the joint analysis of these drivers presents methodological challenges. To address this problem, we propose a novel methodology to explore the relationship between livelihood heterogeneity and land use change at the community level. It combines the concept of archetype with the accounting scheme of MUlti-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism to define and quantify the characteristics of livelihood typologies in socioeconomic (time use, financial flows) and ecological terms (land use, agricultural inputs, soil degradation). Conservation trade-offs of potential policies are explored through “what if” scenarios assuming changes in off-farm opportunities, population growth, and conservation/farming subsidies. The approach is tested with a case study of the community of San Isidro, in Chiapas, Mexico. We conclude that the concept of livelihood typologies is useful to inform the debate over conservation prospects in rural environments. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-02965-z.