Projected Effects of Climate Change on Species Range of Pantala flavescens, a Wandering Glider Dragonfly

SIMPLE SUMMARY: In this study, we simulated the distribution range and its shift of Pantala flavescens in past, present, and future scenarios, and revealed its habitat properties. Except at high latitudes near the poles (e.g., Antarctica and near the Arctic Circle), it is found almost everywhere in the world, with the most suitable habitat mainly in East Asia and the United States. The max temperature of the warmest month and the precipitation of the wettest month are important factors affecting its distribution, and its suitability decreases with the increase of altitude. Climate warming promoted the shift of lowly and moderately suitable habitats into moderately and highly suitable habitats, especially in equatorial regions, which increased the total habitat area. This study provides a global dynamic distribution pattern of P. flavescens across large temporal and spatial scales, and provides a reference for further understanding of its biodiversity and conservation. ABSTRACT: Dragonflies are sensitive to climate change due to their special habitat in aquatic and terrestrial environments, especially Pantala flavescens, which have extraordinary migratory abilities in response to climate change on spatio-temporal scales. At present, there are major gaps in the documentation of insects and the effects of climatic changes on the habitat and species it supports. In this study, we model the global distribution of a wandering glider dragonfly, P. flavescens, and detected the important environmental factors shaping its range, as well as habitat shifts under historical and future warming scenarios. The results showed a global map of species ranges of P. flavescens currently, including southern North America, most of South America, south-central Africa, most of Europe, South, East and Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania, in total, ca. 6581.667 × 10(4) km(2). BIO5 (the max temperature of warmest month) and BIO13 (the precipitation of wettest month) greatly explained its species ranges. The historic refugia were identified around the Great Lakes in the north-central United States. Future warming will increase the total area of suitable habitat and shift the type of suitable habitat compared to the current distribution. The habitat suitability of P. flavescens decreased with elevation, global warming forced it to expand to higher elevations, and the habitat suitability of P. flavescens around the equator increased with global warming. Overall, our study provides a global dynamic pattern of suitable habitats for P. flavescens from the perspective of climate change, and provides a useful reference for biodiversity research and biological conservation.