Monitoring Multi-Scale Ecological Change and Its Potential Drivers in the Economic Zone of the Tianshan Mountains’ Northern Slopes, Xinjiang, China

Accurately capturing the changing patterns of ecological quality in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM) and researching its significant impacts responds to the requirements of high-quality sustainable urban development. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) were obtained by normalization and PCA transformation of four basic indicators based on Landsat images. It then employed geographic detectors to analyze the factors that influence ecological change. The result demonstrates that: (1) In the distribution of land use conversions and degrees of human disturbance, built-up land, principally urban land, and agricultural land, represented by dry land, are rising, while the shrinkage of grassland is the most substantial. The degree of human disturbance is increasing overall for glaciers. (2) The overall ecological environment of the northern slopes of Tianshan is relatively poor. Temporally, the ecological quality changes and fluctuates, with an overall rising trend. Spatially, ecological quality is low in the north and south and high in the center, with high values concentrated in the mountains and agriculture and low values in the Gobi and desert. However, on a large scale, the ecological quality of the Urumqi–Changji–Shihezi metropolitan area has worsened dramatically compared to other regions. (3) Driving factor detection showed that LST and NDVI were the most critical influencing factors, with an upward trend in the influence of WET. Typically, LST has the biggest influence on RSEI when interacting with NDVI. In terms of the broader region, the influence of social factors is smaller, but the role of human interference in the built-up area of the oasis city can be found to be more significant at large scales. The study shows that it is necessary to strengthen ecological conservation efforts in the UANSTM region, focusing on the impact of urban and agricultural land expansion on surface temperature and vegetation.