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Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model

A “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)” monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)...

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Autores principales: Liao, Ling-Chun, Hsu, Chen-Yang, Chen, Hsiu-Hsi, Lai, Chao-Chih
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9959462/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36851347
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11020468
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author Liao, Ling-Chun
Hsu, Chen-Yang
Chen, Hsiu-Hsi
Lai, Chao-Chih
author_facet Liao, Ling-Chun
Hsu, Chen-Yang
Chen, Hsiu-Hsi
Lai, Chao-Chih
author_sort Liao, Ling-Chun
collection PubMed
description A “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)” monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) model with the directed acyclic graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R(0)/R(e)) and to assess the epidemic spread of monkeypox across the globe. The maximum estimated R(0)/R(e) was 1.16 (1.15–1.17), 1.20 (1.20–1.20), 1.34 (1.34–1.35), 1.33 (1.33–1.33) and 2.52 (2.41–2.66) in the United States, Spain, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The values of R(0)/R(e) were below 1 after August 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. The PHEIC of the global spreading of human monkeypox has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment.
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spelling pubmed-99594622023-02-26 Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model Liao, Ling-Chun Hsu, Chen-Yang Chen, Hsiu-Hsi Lai, Chao-Chih Vaccines (Basel) Communication A “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)” monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) model with the directed acyclic graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R(0)/R(e)) and to assess the epidemic spread of monkeypox across the globe. The maximum estimated R(0)/R(e) was 1.16 (1.15–1.17), 1.20 (1.20–1.20), 1.34 (1.34–1.35), 1.33 (1.33–1.33) and 2.52 (2.41–2.66) in the United States, Spain, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The values of R(0)/R(e) were below 1 after August 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. The PHEIC of the global spreading of human monkeypox has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment. MDPI 2023-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9959462/ /pubmed/36851347 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11020468 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Communication
Liao, Ling-Chun
Hsu, Chen-Yang
Chen, Hsiu-Hsi
Lai, Chao-Chih
Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model
title Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model
title_full Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model
title_fullStr Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model
title_short Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model
title_sort estimating the global spread of epidemic human monkeypox with bayesian directed acyclic graphic model
topic Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9959462/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36851347
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11020468
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