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The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a key health issue worldwide. Due to early identification and effective treatment strategies, the disease pattern of RA has also changed. However, the most comprehensive and up-to-date information about the burden of RA and its trends in subsequent years is l...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9959633/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36835827 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12041291 |
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author | Cai, Yuanqing Zhang, Jianan Liang, Jialin Xiao, Mofan Zhang, Guangyang Jing, Zhaopu Lv, Leifeng Nan, Kai Dang, Xiaoqian |
author_facet | Cai, Yuanqing Zhang, Jianan Liang, Jialin Xiao, Mofan Zhang, Guangyang Jing, Zhaopu Lv, Leifeng Nan, Kai Dang, Xiaoqian |
author_sort | Cai, Yuanqing |
collection | PubMed |
description | Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a key health issue worldwide. Due to early identification and effective treatment strategies, the disease pattern of RA has also changed. However, the most comprehensive and up-to-date information about the burden of RA and its trends in subsequent years is lacking. Objective: this study aimed to report the global burden of RA by sex, age, region, and forecast for 2030. Method: Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used in this study. The trends in the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of RA from 1990 to 2019 were reported. The global burden of RA in 2019 was reported by a sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Finally, the trends in the following years were predicted by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. Results: Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 207.46 (95% UI:189.99 to 226.95) in 1990 to 224.25 (95% UI: 204.94 to 245.99) in 2019, with an estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of 0.37% (95% CI: 0.32 to 0.42). Regarding the incidence, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) increased from 12.21 (95% UI: 11.13 to 13.38) to 13 (95% UI: 11.83 to 14.27) per 100,000 people from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of 0.3% (95% CI: 11.83 to 14.27). The age-standardized DALY rate also increased from 39.12 (95% UI: 30.13 to 48.56) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 39.57 (95% UI: 30.51 to 49.53) in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.12% (95% CI: 0.08% to 0.17%). There was no significant association between the SDI and ASR when the SDI was lower than 0.7, while there was a positive association between the SDI and ASR when the SDI was higher than 0.7 The BAPC analysis showed that the ASR was estimated to be up to 18.23 in females and approximately 8.34 per 100,000 people in males by 2030. Conclusion: RA is still a key public health issue worldwide. The global burden of RA has increased over the past decades and will continue to increase in the coming years, and much more attention should be given to early diagnosis and treatment to reduce the burden of RA. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9959633 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-99596332023-02-26 The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Cai, Yuanqing Zhang, Jianan Liang, Jialin Xiao, Mofan Zhang, Guangyang Jing, Zhaopu Lv, Leifeng Nan, Kai Dang, Xiaoqian J Clin Med Article Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a key health issue worldwide. Due to early identification and effective treatment strategies, the disease pattern of RA has also changed. However, the most comprehensive and up-to-date information about the burden of RA and its trends in subsequent years is lacking. Objective: this study aimed to report the global burden of RA by sex, age, region, and forecast for 2030. Method: Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used in this study. The trends in the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of RA from 1990 to 2019 were reported. The global burden of RA in 2019 was reported by a sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Finally, the trends in the following years were predicted by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. Results: Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 207.46 (95% UI:189.99 to 226.95) in 1990 to 224.25 (95% UI: 204.94 to 245.99) in 2019, with an estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of 0.37% (95% CI: 0.32 to 0.42). Regarding the incidence, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) increased from 12.21 (95% UI: 11.13 to 13.38) to 13 (95% UI: 11.83 to 14.27) per 100,000 people from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of 0.3% (95% CI: 11.83 to 14.27). The age-standardized DALY rate also increased from 39.12 (95% UI: 30.13 to 48.56) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 39.57 (95% UI: 30.51 to 49.53) in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.12% (95% CI: 0.08% to 0.17%). There was no significant association between the SDI and ASR when the SDI was lower than 0.7, while there was a positive association between the SDI and ASR when the SDI was higher than 0.7 The BAPC analysis showed that the ASR was estimated to be up to 18.23 in females and approximately 8.34 per 100,000 people in males by 2030. Conclusion: RA is still a key public health issue worldwide. The global burden of RA has increased over the past decades and will continue to increase in the coming years, and much more attention should be given to early diagnosis and treatment to reduce the burden of RA. MDPI 2023-02-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9959633/ /pubmed/36835827 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12041291 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Cai, Yuanqing Zhang, Jianan Liang, Jialin Xiao, Mofan Zhang, Guangyang Jing, Zhaopu Lv, Leifeng Nan, Kai Dang, Xiaoqian The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis |
title | The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis |
title_full | The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis |
title_fullStr | The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis |
title_short | The Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis |
title_sort | burden of rheumatoid arthritis: findings from the 2019 global burden of diseases study and forecasts for 2030 by bayesian age-period-cohort analysis |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9959633/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36835827 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12041291 |
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